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Kvasice vs Šumperk — 4. liga - Divizie E 2019

Kvasice
Kvasice
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Šumperk
Šumperk
10/5/20244. liga - Divizie E4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 10Stadion Kvasice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Kvasice54%
×Draw21%
Šumperk25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kvasice
2.17
Šumperk
1.44

Kvasice creates 51% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 51 away

creates per match

Kvasice
2.14
Šumperk
1.25

allows per match

Kvasice
1.64
Šumperk
2.20

finishing

Kvasice+0.00on par
Šumperk+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kvasice ↓

Šumperk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Kvasice or draw
75%
Kvasice or Šumperk
79%
Draw or Šumperk
46%

Winning margin

Kvasice wins by 2+
32%
Šumperk wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kvasice 1+ goals
89%
Kvasice 2+ goals
64%
Kvasice 3+ goals
36%
Šumperk 1+ goals
76%
Šumperk 2+ goals
42%
Šumperk 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Kvasice (draw refunded)
68%
Šumperk (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kvasice at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

Šumperk away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.20 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kvasice attack 2.14 + Šumperk defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.17

Šumperk attack 1.25 + Kvasice defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Kvasice scores more
54%
level
21%
Šumperk scores more
25%

Kvasice at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Kvasice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie E: Kvasice 1–2 Šumperk

Šumperk beat Kvasice 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie E on October 5, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Kvasice in Kvasice.