Kvasice 2–4 Baťov: Result & Stats

Kvasice

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Baťov

10/19/2024

4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 12Stadion Kvasice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Kvasice54%

×Draw21%

Baťov25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KvasiceExpected goals in this matchBaťov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.40

Kvasice

2.13

Baťov

1.40

Kvasice creates 52% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 56 away

2.14

creates per match

1.16

1.64

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Kvasice

2.14

Baťov

1.16

allows per match

Kvasice

1.64

Baťov

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kvasice+0.00on par

Baťov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kvasice ↓

Baťov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Kvasice or draw

75%

Kvasice or Baťov

79%

Draw or Baťov

46%

Winning margin

Kvasice wins by 2+

32%

Baťov wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Kvasice 1+ goals

88%

Kvasice 2+ goals

63%

Kvasice 3+ goals

35%

Baťov 1+ goals

75%

Baťov 2+ goals

41%

Baťov 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Kvasice (draw refunded)

68%

Baťov (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kvasice at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

Baťov away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.13 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kvasice attack 2.14 + Baťov defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.13

Baťov attack 1.16 + Kvasice defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Kvasice scores more

54%

level

21%

Baťov scores more

25%

Kvasice at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Kvasice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff