Kvarnsveden 5–1 Fagersta Södra IK: Result & Stats

Kvarnsveden

FT

5 – 1

Fagersta Södra IK

8/29/2020

Division 2 - Norra Svealand · Norra Svealand - 6Ljungbergsplanen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Kvarnsveden70%

×Draw15%

Fagersta Södra IK15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KvarnsvedenExpected goals in this matchFagersta Södra IK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.08

1.42

Kvarnsveden

3.08

Fagersta Södra IK

1.42

Kvarnsveden creates 117% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 6 away

1.32

creates per match

0.67

2.17

allows per match

4.83

creates per match

Kvarnsveden

1.32

Fagersta Södra IK

0.67

allows per match

Kvarnsveden

2.17

Fagersta Södra IK

4.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kvarnsveden+0.00on par

Fagersta Södra IK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kvarnsveden ↓

Fagersta Södra IK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–15%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

64%36%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Kvarnsveden or draw

85%

Kvarnsveden or Fagersta Södra IK

85%

Draw or Fagersta Södra IK

30%

Winning margin

Kvarnsveden wins by 2+

50%

Fagersta Södra IK wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Kvarnsveden 1+ goals

95%

Kvarnsveden 2+ goals

81%

Kvarnsveden 3+ goals

58%

Fagersta Södra IK 1+ goals

76%

Fagersta Södra IK 2+ goals

41%

Fagersta Södra IK 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Kvarnsveden (draw refunded)

82%

Fagersta Södra IK (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kvarnsveden at home — creates 1.32, concedes 2.17 · 59 matches

Fagersta Södra IK away — creates 0.67, concedes 4.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kvarnsveden attack 1.32 + Fagersta Södra IK defence 4.83 → ÷2 → 3.08

Fagersta Södra IK attack 0.67 + Kvarnsveden defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Kvarnsveden scores more

70%

level

15%

Fagersta Södra IK scores more

15%

Kvarnsveden at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Kvarnsveden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff