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Kvant vs Znamya Noginsk — Second League - Group 3 2020

Kvant
Kvant
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Znamya Noginsk
Znamya Noginsk
4/18/2023Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 1Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Kvant38%
×Draw25%
Znamya Noginsk37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kvant
1.40
Znamya Noginsk
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 89 home / 55 away

creates per match

Kvant
1.01
Znamya Noginsk
1.13

allows per match

Kvant
1.63
Znamya Noginsk
1.78

finishing

Kvant+0.00on par
Znamya Noginsk+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kvant ↓

Znamya Noginsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Kvant or draw
63%
Kvant or Znamya Noginsk
75%
Draw or Znamya Noginsk
62%

Winning margin

Kvant wins by 2+
17%
Znamya Noginsk wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Kvant 1+ goals
75%
Kvant 2+ goals
41%
Kvant 3+ goals
17%
Znamya Noginsk 1+ goals
75%
Znamya Noginsk 2+ goals
40%
Znamya Noginsk 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Kvant (draw refunded)
51%
Znamya Noginsk (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kvant at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.63 · 89 matches

Znamya Noginsk away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kvant attack 1.01 + Znamya Noginsk defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.40

Znamya Noginsk attack 1.13 + Kvant defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kvant scores more
38%
level
25%
Znamya Noginsk scores more
37%

Kvant at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Kvant will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kvant vs Znamya Noginsk

Znamya Noginsk beat Kvant 2-0 in Second League - Group 3 on April 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Trud in Obninsk.