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Kvant vs Saransk — Second League - Group 3 2020

Kvant
Kvant
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Saransk
Saransk
10/14/2021Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 16Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Kvant23%
×Draw22%
Saransk55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kvant
1.19
Saransk
1.97

Saransk creates 66% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 16 away

creates per match

Kvant
1.01
Saransk
2.31

allows per match

Kvant
1.63
Saransk
1.38

finishing

Kvant+0.00on par
Saransk+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kvant ↓

Saransk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Kvant or draw
45%
Kvant or Saransk
78%
Draw or Saransk
77%

Winning margin

Kvant wins by 2+
9%
Saransk wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Kvant 1+ goals
70%
Kvant 2+ goals
33%
Kvant 3+ goals
12%
Saransk 1+ goals
86%
Saransk 2+ goals
58%
Saransk 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Kvant (draw refunded)
29%
Saransk (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kvant at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.63 · 89 matches

Saransk away — creates 2.31, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kvant attack 1.01 + Saransk defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.19

Saransk attack 2.31 + Kvant defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Kvant scores more
23%
level
22%
Saransk scores more
55%

Saransk at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Saransk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kvant vs Saransk

Saransk beat Kvant 4-1 in Second League - Group 3 on October 14, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Trud in Obninsk.