Kvant 0–2 Sakhalinets: Result & Stats

Kvant

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Sakhalinets

8/10/2022

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 5Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Kvant22%

×Draw24%

Sakhalinets54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KvantExpected goals in this matchSakhalinets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.71

Kvant

1.00

Sakhalinets

1.71

Sakhalinets creates 71% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 25 away

1.01

creates per match

1.80

1.63

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Kvant

1.01

Sakhalinets

1.80

allows per match

Kvant

1.63

Sakhalinets

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kvant+0.00on par

Sakhalinets+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kvant ↓

Sakhalinets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–210%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Kvant or draw

46%

Kvant or Sakhalinets

76%

Draw or Sakhalinets

78%

Winning margin

Kvant wins by 2+

8%

Sakhalinets wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Kvant 1+ goals

63%

Kvant 2+ goals

26%

Kvant 3+ goals

8%

Sakhalinets 1+ goals

82%

Sakhalinets 2+ goals

51%

Sakhalinets 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Kvant (draw refunded)

29%

Sakhalinets (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kvant at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.63 · 89 matches

Sakhalinets away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.00 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kvant attack 1.01 + Sakhalinets defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Sakhalinets attack 1.80 + Kvant defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Kvant scores more

22%

level

24%

Sakhalinets scores more

54%

Sakhalinets at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sakhalinets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff