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Kvant vs Peresvet Podolsk — Second League - Group 3 2020

Kvant
Kvant
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Peresvet Podolsk
Peresvet Podolsk
9/9/2023Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 8Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Kvant45%
×Draw23%
Peresvet Podolsk31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kvant
1.77
Peresvet Podolsk
1.44

Kvant creates 23% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 42 away

creates per match

Kvant
1.01
Peresvet Podolsk
1.24

allows per match

Kvant
1.63
Peresvet Podolsk
2.52

finishing

Kvant+0.00on par
Peresvet Podolsk+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kvant ↓

Peresvet Podolsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Kvant or draw
69%
Kvant or Peresvet Podolsk
77%
Draw or Peresvet Podolsk
55%

Winning margin

Kvant wins by 2+
24%
Peresvet Podolsk wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Kvant 1+ goals
83%
Kvant 2+ goals
53%
Kvant 3+ goals
26%
Peresvet Podolsk 1+ goals
76%
Peresvet Podolsk 2+ goals
42%
Peresvet Podolsk 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Kvant (draw refunded)
59%
Peresvet Podolsk (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kvant at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.63 · 89 matches

Peresvet Podolsk away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.52 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kvant attack 1.01 + Peresvet Podolsk defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 1.77

Peresvet Podolsk attack 1.24 + Kvant defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kvant scores more
45%
level
23%
Peresvet Podolsk scores more
31%

Kvant at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kvant will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Kvant 2–3 Peresvet Podolsk

Peresvet Podolsk beat Kvant 3-2 in Second League - Group 3 on September 9, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Trud in Obninsk.