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Kvant vs Metallurg Vidnoye — Second League - Group 3 2020

Kvant
Kvant
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Metallurg Vidnoye
Metallurg Vidnoye
8/9/2020Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 1Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Kvant54%
×Draw22%
Metallurg Vidnoye23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kvant
1.94
Metallurg Vidnoye
1.20

Kvant creates 62% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 30 away

creates per match

Kvant
1.01
Metallurg Vidnoye
0.77

allows per match

Kvant
1.63
Metallurg Vidnoye
2.87

finishing

Kvant+0.00on par
Metallurg Vidnoye+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kvant ↓

Metallurg Vidnoye →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Kvant or draw
77%
Kvant or Metallurg Vidnoye
78%
Draw or Metallurg Vidnoye
46%

Winning margin

Kvant wins by 2+
32%
Metallurg Vidnoye wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kvant 1+ goals
86%
Kvant 2+ goals
58%
Kvant 3+ goals
30%
Metallurg Vidnoye 1+ goals
70%
Metallurg Vidnoye 2+ goals
34%
Metallurg Vidnoye 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kvant (draw refunded)
70%
Metallurg Vidnoye (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kvant at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.63 · 89 matches

Metallurg Vidnoye away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kvant attack 1.01 + Metallurg Vidnoye defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 1.94

Metallurg Vidnoye attack 0.77 + Kvant defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Kvant scores more
54%
level
22%
Metallurg Vidnoye scores more
23%

Kvant at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Kvant will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kvant vs Metallurg Vidnoye

Kvant beat Metallurg Vidnoye 2-1 in Second League - Group 3 on August 9, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Trud in Obninsk.