Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

KV vs KFG — 2. Deild 2026

KV
KV
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
KFG
KFG
A. Johansson 69' (pen)
H. M. Fridriksson 83'
B. Helgason 76'
S. Jonsson 45+3'
7/24/20232. Deild2. Deild · Round 13KR-völlur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

KV49%
×Draw21%
KFG29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KV
2.04
KFG
1.54

KV creates 32% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 50 away

creates per match

KV
1.61
KFG
1.24

allows per match

KV
1.83
KFG
2.46

finishing

KV+0.00on par
KFG+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KV ↓

KFG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

KV or draw
71%
KV or KFG
79%
Draw or KFG
51%

Winning margin

KV wins by 2+
28%
KFG wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

KV 1+ goals
87%
KV 2+ goals
60%
KV 3+ goals
33%
KFG 1+ goals
79%
KFG 2+ goals
45%
KFG 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

KV (draw refunded)
63%
KFG (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KV at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.83 · 23 matches

KFG away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.46 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KV attack 1.61 + KFG defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.04

KFG attack 1.24 + KV defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

KV scores more
49%
level
21%
KFG scores more
29%

KV at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "KV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+3'
S. Jonsson
69'
A. JohanssonPenalty
76'
B. Helgason
83'
H. M. Fridriksson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KV vs KFG

KFG beat KV 3-1 in 2. Deild on July 24, 2023.

Goals: S. Jonsson (45+3'), A. Johansson (69' pen), B. Helgason (76'), H. M. Fridriksson (83').

The match was played at KR-völlur in Reykjavík.