KV Mechelen 3–3 Gent: Result & Stats

KV Mechelen

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Gent

G. Hairemans 54'

B. Raman 46', 14'

H. Gambor 90+4'

A. Guðjohnsen 84'

D. Vanzeir 28'

2/7/2025

Jupiler Pro League · Round 25AFAS Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

KV Mechelen39%

×Draw23%

Gent38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KV MechelenExpected goals in this matchGent

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.59

KV Mechelen

1.61

Gent

1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 18 away

1.39

creates per match

1.48

1.71

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

KV Mechelen

1.39

Gent

1.48

allows per match

KV Mechelen

1.71

Gent

1.84

-0.04on par

finishing

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

KV Mechelen-0.04on par

Gent-0.20scores less

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KV Mechelen ↓

Gent →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

KV Mechelen or draw

62%

KV Mechelen or Gent

77%

Draw or Gent

61%

Winning margin

KV Mechelen wins by 2+

19%

Gent wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

KV Mechelen 1+ goals

80%

KV Mechelen 2+ goals

48%

KV Mechelen 3+ goals

22%

Gent 1+ goals

80%

Gent 2+ goals

47%

Gent 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

KV Mechelen (draw refunded)

51%

Gent (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KV Mechelen at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Gent away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.84 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KV Mechelen attack 1.39 + Gent defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.61

Gent attack 1.48 + KV Mechelen defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

KV Mechelen scores more

39%

level

23%

Gent scores more

38%

KV Mechelen at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "KV Mechelen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

B. Raman

KV Mechelen · F

8.6

Match Events

14'

B. Raman

28'

D. Vanzeir↳ M. Samoise

45+1'

Jordan Torunarigha

46'

B. Raman↳ R. Schoofs

54'

G. Hairemans↳ R. Schoofs

57'

S. Kotto← S. Mitrović

57'

A. Guðjohnsen← M. Sonko

69'

L. Lauberbach← B. Raman

72'

P. Pflücke← B. Antonio

74'

Tiago Araújo← A. Brown

74'

O. Gandelman← M. Delorge

81'

K. Van Rafelghem← N. Storm

82'

A. Ouattara← G. Hairemans

84'

A. Guðjohnsen↳ Tiago Araújo

90+4'

H. Gambor

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KVGent

Overview

39%Possession61%

16Total Shots15

2.47Expected Goals (xG)1.89

9Corners2

10Fouls6

Shots

16Total Shots15

8On Target6

8Off Target7

0Blocked2

9Inside Box10

7Outside Box5

Passing

39%Possession61%

341Total Passes556

269Accurate Passes464

79%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

0.19Goals Prevented0.19

Discipline

10Fouls6

0Yellow Cards1

4Offsides0