KV Mechelen 2–1 AS Eupen: Result & Stats

KV Mechelen

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

AS Eupen

10/22/2022

Jupiler Pro League · Round 14AFAS-stadion Achter de Kazerne

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

KV Mechelen52%

×Draw23%

AS Eupen25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KV MechelenExpected goals in this matchAS Eupen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.19

KV Mechelen

1.84

AS Eupen

1.19

KV Mechelen creates 55% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 99 away

1.72

creates per match

0.96

1.43

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

KV Mechelen

1.72

AS Eupen

0.96

allows per match

KV Mechelen

1.43

AS Eupen

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KV Mechelen+0.00on par

AS Eupen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KV Mechelen ↓

AS Eupen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

KV Mechelen or draw

75%

KV Mechelen or AS Eupen

77%

Draw or AS Eupen

48%

Winning margin

KV Mechelen wins by 2+

29%

AS Eupen wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

KV Mechelen 1+ goals

84%

KV Mechelen 2+ goals

55%

KV Mechelen 3+ goals

28%

AS Eupen 1+ goals

70%

AS Eupen 2+ goals

33%

AS Eupen 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

KV Mechelen (draw refunded)

68%

AS Eupen (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KV Mechelen at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.43 · 133 matches

AS Eupen away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.97 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KV Mechelen attack 1.72 + AS Eupen defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.84

AS Eupen attack 0.96 + KV Mechelen defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

KV Mechelen scores more

52%

level

23%

AS Eupen scores more

25%

KV Mechelen at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "KV Mechelen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff