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Kuya Sport vs Saint Eloi Lupopo — Ligue 1 2019

Kuya Sport
Kuya Sport
FT
2 – 4
Saint Eloi Lupopo
Saint Eloi Lupopo
11/18/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 8Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Kuya Sport26%
×Draw28%
Saint Eloi Lupopo46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kuya Sport
0.94
Saint Eloi Lupopo
1.34

Saint Eloi Lupopo creates 43% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 98 away

creates per match

Kuya Sport
1.11
Saint Eloi Lupopo
1.49

allows per match

Kuya Sport
1.19
Saint Eloi Lupopo
0.77

finishing

Kuya Sport+0.00on par
Saint Eloi Lupopo+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuya Sport ↓

Saint Eloi Lupopo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Kuya Sport or draw
54%
Kuya Sport or Saint Eloi Lupopo
72%
Draw or Saint Eloi Lupopo
74%

Winning margin

Kuya Sport wins by 2+
9%
Saint Eloi Lupopo wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Kuya Sport 1+ goals
61%
Kuya Sport 2+ goals
24%
Kuya Sport 3+ goals
7%
Saint Eloi Lupopo 1+ goals
74%
Saint Eloi Lupopo 2+ goals
39%
Saint Eloi Lupopo 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Kuya Sport (draw refunded)
36%
Saint Eloi Lupopo (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuya Sport at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.19 · 37 matches

Saint Eloi Lupopo away — creates 1.49, concedes 0.77 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuya Sport attack 1.11 + Saint Eloi Lupopo defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.94

Saint Eloi Lupopo attack 1.49 + Kuya Sport defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kuya Sport scores more
26%
level
28%
Saint Eloi Lupopo scores more
46%

Saint Eloi Lupopo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Saint Eloi Lupopo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kuya Sport 2 – 4 Saint Eloi Lupopo

Saint Eloi Lupopo beat Kuya Sport 4-2 in Ligue 1 on November 18, 2021.

The match was played at Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte in Kinshasa.