Kuya Sport 1–0 Motema Pembe: Result & Stats

Kuya Sport

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Motema Pembe

5/24/2024

Ligue 1 · Relegation Round - 6Stade Tata Raphaël

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Kuya Sport32%

×Draw29%

Motema Pembe39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kuya SportExpected goals in this matchMotema Pembe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.17

Kuya Sport

1.02

Motema Pembe

1.17

Motema Pembe creates 15% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 83 away

1.11

creates per match

1.14

1.19

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Kuya Sport

1.11

Motema Pembe

1.14

allows per match

Kuya Sport

1.19

Motema Pembe

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kuya Sport+0.00on par

Motema Pembe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuya Sport ↓

Motema Pembe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Kuya Sport or draw

61%

Kuya Sport or Motema Pembe

71%

Draw or Motema Pembe

68%

Winning margin

Kuya Sport wins by 2+

12%

Motema Pembe wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Kuya Sport 1+ goals

64%

Kuya Sport 2+ goals

27%

Kuya Sport 3+ goals

8%

Motema Pembe 1+ goals

69%

Motema Pembe 2+ goals

33%

Motema Pembe 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Kuya Sport (draw refunded)

45%

Motema Pembe (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuya Sport at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.19 · 37 matches

Motema Pembe away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.94 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuya Sport attack 1.11 + Motema Pembe defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.02

Motema Pembe attack 1.14 + Kuya Sport defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kuya Sport scores more

32%

level

29%

Motema Pembe scores more

39%

Motema Pembe at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Motema Pembe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff