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Kuya Sport vs Bukavu Dawa — Ligue 1 2019

Kuya Sport
Kuya Sport
FT
1 – 2
Bukavu Dawa
Bukavu Dawa
10/14/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 7Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Kuya Sport50%
×Draw26%
Bukavu Dawa25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kuya Sport
1.54
Bukavu Dawa
1.00

Kuya Sport creates 54% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 27 away

creates per match

Kuya Sport
1.11
Bukavu Dawa
0.81

allows per match

Kuya Sport
1.19
Bukavu Dawa
1.96

finishing

Kuya Sport+0.00on par
Bukavu Dawa+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuya Sport ↓

Bukavu Dawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kuya Sport or draw
75%
Kuya Sport or Bukavu Dawa
74%
Draw or Bukavu Dawa
50%

Winning margin

Kuya Sport wins by 2+
26%
Bukavu Dawa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kuya Sport 1+ goals
79%
Kuya Sport 2+ goals
45%
Kuya Sport 3+ goals
20%
Bukavu Dawa 1+ goals
63%
Bukavu Dawa 2+ goals
26%
Bukavu Dawa 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Kuya Sport (draw refunded)
67%
Bukavu Dawa (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuya Sport at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.19 · 37 matches

Bukavu Dawa away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.96 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuya Sport attack 1.11 + Bukavu Dawa defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.54

Bukavu Dawa attack 0.81 + Kuya Sport defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kuya Sport scores more
50%
level
26%
Bukavu Dawa scores more
25%

Kuya Sport at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kuya Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kuya Sport vs Bukavu Dawa

Bukavu Dawa beat Kuya Sport 2-1 in Ligue 1 on October 14, 2024.

The match was played at Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte in Kinshasa.