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Kuwait vs Turkmenistan — Friendlies 2026

Kuwait
Kuwait
FT
1 – 1
Turkmenistan
Turkmenistan
O. Al Hebaiter 81'
Arslanmyrat Amanow 70'
10/15/2019FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 3Al Kuwait Sports Club Stadium (Madīnat al-Kuwayt (Kuwait City))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Kuwait40%
×Draw30%
Turkmenistan30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kuwait
1.14
Turkmenistan
0.96

Kuwait creates 19% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 5 away

creates per match

Kuwait
1.27
Turkmenistan
0.60

allows per match

Kuwait
1.31
Turkmenistan
1.00

finishing

Kuwait+0.00on par
Turkmenistan+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuwait ↓

Turkmenistan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Kuwait or draw
70%
Kuwait or Turkmenistan
70%
Draw or Turkmenistan
60%

Winning margin

Kuwait wins by 2+
17%
Turkmenistan wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kuwait 1+ goals
68%
Kuwait 2+ goals
32%
Kuwait 3+ goals
11%
Turkmenistan 1+ goals
62%
Turkmenistan 2+ goals
25%
Turkmenistan 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kuwait (draw refunded)
57%
Turkmenistan (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuwait at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

Turkmenistan away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuwait attack 1.27 + Turkmenistan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.14

Turkmenistan attack 0.60 + Kuwait defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kuwait scores more
40%
level
30%
Turkmenistan scores more
30%

Kuwait at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kuwait will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'
70'
Arslanmyrat Amanow
79'
81'
O. Al Hebaiter
82'
87'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kuwait vs Turkmenistan

Kuwait and Turkmenistan drew 1-1 in Friendlies on October 15, 2019.

Goals: Arslanmyrat Amanow (70'), O. Al Hebaiter (81').

The match was played at Al Kuwait Sports Club Stadium (Madīnat al-Kuwayt (Kuwait City)).