Kuwait 2–1 Tajikistan: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Kuwait

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Tajikistan

S. Al Khaldi 61'

B. Tareq Ali 9'

A. Dzhalilov 90'

3/28/2023

Friendlies · Friendlies 3Jaber Al-Ahmad International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Kuwait44%

×Draw28%

Tajikistan28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KuwaitExpected goals in this matchTajikistan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.00

Kuwait

1.31

Tajikistan

1.00

Kuwait creates 31% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 20 away

1.27

creates per match

0.70

1.31

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Kuwait

1.27

Tajikistan

0.70

allows per match

Kuwait

1.31

Tajikistan

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kuwait+0.00on par

Tajikistan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuwait ↓

Tajikistan →

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Kuwait or draw

72%

Kuwait or Tajikistan

72%

Draw or Tajikistan

56%

Winning margin

Kuwait wins by 2+

20%

Tajikistan wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Kuwait 1+ goals

73%

Kuwait 2+ goals

38%

Kuwait 3+ goals

14%

Tajikistan 1+ goals

63%

Tajikistan 2+ goals

26%

Tajikistan 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Kuwait (draw refunded)

61%

Tajikistan (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Kuwait at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

Tajikistan away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Kuwait attack 1.27 + Tajikistan defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.31

Tajikistan attack 0.70 + Kuwait defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kuwait scores more

44%

level

28%

Tajikistan scores more

28%

Kuwait at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kuwait will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

B. Tareq Ali

61'

S. Al Khaldi

90'

A. Dzhalilov

90+1'

A. Dzhalilov

Kuwait4-2-3-1

Tajikistan4-2-3-1

Islomov

Asrorov

Khaled

Ali

Ghanim

Al-Rashid

Al-Faneen

Manager: Rui Bento

Manager: P. Segrt

Friendlies: Kuwait 2–1 Tajikistan

Kuwait beat Tajikistan 2-1 in Friendlies on March 28, 2023.

Goals: B. Tareq Ali (9'), S. Al Khaldi (61'), A. Dzhalilov (90').

The match was played at Jaber Al-Ahmad International Stadium in Kuwait City.

Kuwait vs Tajikistan — Friendlies 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Friendlies: Kuwait 2–1 Tajikistan