Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kuwait vs Sudan — Friendlies 2026

Kuwait
Kuwait
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sudan
Sudan
6/15/2023FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Kuwait43%
×Draw29%
Sudan28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kuwait
1.23
Sudan
0.93

Kuwait creates 32% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 11 away

creates per match

Kuwait
1.27
Sudan
0.55

allows per match

Kuwait
1.31
Sudan
1.18

finishing

Kuwait+0.00on par
Sudan+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuwait ↓

Sudan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Kuwait or draw
72%
Kuwait or Sudan
71%
Draw or Sudan
57%

Winning margin

Kuwait wins by 2+
19%
Sudan wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Kuwait 1+ goals
71%
Kuwait 2+ goals
35%
Kuwait 3+ goals
13%
Sudan 1+ goals
61%
Sudan 2+ goals
24%
Sudan 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kuwait (draw refunded)
61%
Sudan (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuwait at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

Sudan away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuwait attack 1.27 + Sudan defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.23

Sudan attack 0.55 + Kuwait defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kuwait scores more
43%
level
29%
Sudan scores more
28%

Kuwait at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kuwait will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kuwait 2 – 1 Sudan

Kuwait beat Sudan 2-1 in Friendlies on June 15, 2023.