Kuwait 1–2 Saudi Arabia: Result & Stats

Kuwait

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Saudi Arabia

Abdullah Al Buraiki 60'

Mukhtar Fallatah 52'

Salman Al Moasher 13'

12/22/2017

League #25 · Group Stage - 1Jaber Al-Ahmad International Stadium (Madīnat al-Kuwayt (Kuwait City))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kuwait26%

×Draw29%

Saudi Arabia45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KuwaitExpected goals in this matchSaudi Arabia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.88

1.25

Kuwait

0.88

Saudi Arabia

1.25

Saudi Arabia creates 42% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

0.75

creates per match

1.00

1.50

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Kuwait

0.75

Saudi Arabia

1.00

allows per match

Kuwait

1.50

Saudi Arabia

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kuwait+0.00on par

Saudi Arabia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuwait ↓

Saudi Arabia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–115%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Kuwait or draw

55%

Kuwait or Saudi Arabia

71%

Draw or Saudi Arabia

74%

Winning margin

Kuwait wins by 2+

9%

Saudi Arabia wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Kuwait 1+ goals

59%

Kuwait 2+ goals

22%

Kuwait 3+ goals

6%

Saudi Arabia 1+ goals

71%

Saudi Arabia 2+ goals

36%

Saudi Arabia 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Kuwait (draw refunded)

37%

Saudi Arabia (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuwait at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Saudi Arabia away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuwait attack 0.75 + Saudi Arabia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Saudi Arabia attack 1.00 + Kuwait defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kuwait scores more

26%

level

29%

Saudi Arabia scores more

45%

Saudi Arabia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Saudi Arabia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

Salman Al Moasher↳ Ahmed Al Fraidi

18'

Mukhtar Fallatah← Hazzaa Al Hazzaa

46'

Redha Abujabarah← Sultan Al Enezi

52'

Mukhtar Fallatah↳ Salman Al Moasher

59'

Abdullah Al Buraiki← Mohammed Al Ajmi

60'

Abdullah Al Buraiki↳ Bader Al Mutawa

71'

Abdullah Al Shammari← Mohammed Al Khabrani

88'

Khalid Al Kabi← Saleh Al Jamaan

Kuwait

Saudi

22

Qarni

5

Hawsawi

4

▼

Khabrani

12

Obaid

2

Saeed

15

A

Fraidi

9

Hazazi

6

mousa

7

⚽A

Moasher

19

▼

Jamaan

10

▼

22

20

13

2

6

▼

Enezi

11

Ansari

7

Enezi

16

▼

Ajmi

15

Harbi

5

Hajeri

17

A

Mutawa

Manager: B. Bunjak

46'▲Redha Abujabarah←▼Sultan Al Enezi

59'▲Abdullah Al Buraiki←▼Mohammed Al Ajmi

Kuwait substitutes

18Abujabarah10Buraiki3Dhefiri9Azemi1Rashidi14Abdullah19Aredi12Rashidi21Maqseed23Abdulghafoor4Hajiah8Azmi

Manager: K. Jurčić

18'▲Mukhtar Fallatah←▼Hazzaa Al Hazzaa

71'▲Abdullah Al Shammari←▼Mohammed Al Khabrani

88'▲Khalid Al Kabi←▼Saleh Al Jamaan

Saudi Arabia substitutes

20Fallatah3Shammari18Kabi13Ghanam11Khodary14Kanoo1Freej17Mustafa23Ajaj8Al-Nemer16Fiqi21Atiah

Match Recap: Kuwait vs Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia beat Kuwait 2-1 in League #25 on December 22, 2017.

Goals: Salman Al Moasher (13'), Mukhtar Fallatah (52'), Abdullah Al Buraiki (60').

The match was played at Jaber Al-Ahmad International Stadium (Madīnat al-Kuwayt (Kuwait City)).

Kuwait vs Saudi Arabia — League #25 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Kuwait vs Saudi Arabia