Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kuwait vs Libya — Friendlies 2026

Kuwait
Kuwait
FT
1 – 3
Libya
Libya
1/12/2024FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 3Cairo International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Kuwait30%
×Draw26%
Libya44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kuwait
1.13
Libya
1.44

Libya creates 27% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 12 away

creates per match

Kuwait
1.26
Libya
1.58

allows per match

Kuwait
1.30
Libya
1.00

finishing

Kuwait+0.00on par
Libya+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuwait ↓

Libya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Kuwait or draw
56%
Kuwait or Libya
74%
Draw or Libya
70%

Winning margin

Kuwait wins by 2+
12%
Libya wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Kuwait 1+ goals
68%
Kuwait 2+ goals
31%
Kuwait 3+ goals
11%
Libya 1+ goals
76%
Libya 2+ goals
42%
Libya 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Kuwait (draw refunded)
40%
Libya (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuwait at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.30 · 27 matches

Libya away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuwait attack 1.26 + Libya defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Libya attack 1.58 + Kuwait defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kuwait scores more
30%
level
26%
Libya scores more
44%

Libya at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Libya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kuwait vs Libya

Libya beat Kuwait 3-1 in Friendlies on January 12, 2024.

The match was played at Cairo International Stadium in Cairo.