Kuwait 2–0 Lebanon: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Kuwait

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Lebanon

11/19/2022

Friendlies · Friendlies 3Police Officers Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Kuwait39%

×Draw31%

Lebanon30%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KuwaitExpected goals in this matchLebanon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.88

Kuwait

1.06

Lebanon

0.88

Kuwait creates 20% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 22 away

1.26

creates per match

0.45

1.30

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Kuwait

1.26

Lebanon

0.45

allows per match

Kuwait

1.30

Lebanon

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kuwait+0.00on par

Lebanon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuwait ↓

Lebanon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Kuwait or draw

70%

Kuwait or Lebanon

69%

Draw or Lebanon

61%

Winning margin

Kuwait wins by 2+

16%

Lebanon wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Kuwait 1+ goals

65%

Kuwait 2+ goals

29%

Kuwait 3+ goals

9%

Lebanon 1+ goals

59%

Lebanon 2+ goals

22%

Lebanon 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Kuwait (draw refunded)

57%

Lebanon (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuwait at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.30 · 27 matches

Lebanon away — creates 0.45, concedes 0.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuwait attack 1.26 + Lebanon defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.06

Lebanon attack 0.45 + Kuwait defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kuwait scores more

39%

level

31%

Lebanon scores more

30%

Kuwait at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kuwait will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Kuwait

Lebanon

Manager: V. Lavička

Manager: M. Radulović