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Kuwait vs Iraq — Friendlies 2026

Kuwait
Kuwait
FT
2 – 2
Iraq
Iraq
Fahad Al Hajeri 78'
Ala'a Mhawi 47' (OG)
Ali Faez 65'
Mohanad Ali 5'
9/10/2018FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 3Ali Al-Salem Al-Sabah Stadium (Al Farwaniyah (Ardiyah))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Kuwait37%
×Draw30%
Iraq34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kuwait
1.10
Iraq
1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 14 away

creates per match

Kuwait
1.27
Iraq
0.79

allows per match

Kuwait
1.31
Iraq
0.93

finishing

Kuwait+0.00on par
Iraq+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuwait ↓

Iraq →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Kuwait or draw
66%
Kuwait or Iraq
70%
Draw or Iraq
63%

Winning margin

Kuwait wins by 2+
15%
Iraq wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Kuwait 1+ goals
67%
Kuwait 2+ goals
30%
Kuwait 3+ goals
10%
Iraq 1+ goals
65%
Iraq 2+ goals
28%
Iraq 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kuwait (draw refunded)
52%
Iraq (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuwait at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

Iraq away — creates 0.79, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuwait attack 1.27 + Iraq defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.10

Iraq attack 0.79 + Kuwait defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Kuwait scores more
37%
level
30%
Iraq scores more
34%

Kuwait at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Kuwait will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
Mohanad Ali
47'
Ala'a MhawiOwn goal
52'
Bader Al MutwaMissed penalty
65'
Ali Faez
78'
Fahad Al Hajeri
80'
Ahmad Ibrahim

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kuwait 2 – 2 Iraq

Kuwait and Iraq drew 2-2 in Friendlies on September 10, 2018.

Goals: Mohanad Ali (5'), Ala'a Mhawi (47' o.g.), Ali Faez (65'), Fahad Al Hajeri (78').

The match was played at Ali Al-Salem Al-Sabah Stadium (Al Farwaniyah (Ardiyah)).