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Kuwait vs Gambia — Friendlies 2026

Kuwait
Kuwait
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Gambia
Gambia
M. T. Al Sharifi 90'
Y. Nasser 65' (pen)
A. Ceesay 57', 42'
11/18/2025FriendliesFriendlies · Friendly International

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Kuwait38%
×Draw28%
Gambia35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kuwait
1.22
Gambia
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 12 away

creates per match

Kuwait
1.27
Gambia
1.00

allows per match

Kuwait
1.31
Gambia
1.17

finishing

Kuwait+0.00on par
Gambia+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuwait ↓

Gambia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Kuwait or draw
65%
Kuwait or Gambia
72%
Draw or Gambia
62%

Winning margin

Kuwait wins by 2+
16%
Gambia wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Kuwait 1+ goals
70%
Kuwait 2+ goals
34%
Kuwait 3+ goals
12%
Gambia 1+ goals
69%
Gambia 2+ goals
32%
Gambia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kuwait (draw refunded)
52%
Gambia (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuwait at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

Gambia away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuwait attack 1.27 + Gambia defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.22

Gambia attack 1.00 + Kuwait defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kuwait scores more
38%
level
28%
Gambia scores more
35%

Kuwait at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Kuwait will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'
A. Ceesay
57'
A. Ceesay
65'
Y. NasserPenalty
90'
M. T. Al Sharifi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kuwait vs Gambia

Kuwait and Gambia drew 2-2 in Friendlies on November 18, 2025.

Goals: A. Ceesay (42', 57'), Y. Nasser (65' pen), M. T. Al Sharifi (90').