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KuuLa II vs ÅIFK — Suomen Cup 2018

KuuLa II
KuuLa II
FT
0 – 3
ÅIFK
ÅIFK
3/4/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundKupittaa 5 KHT Keinonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

KuuLa II3%
×Draw9%
ÅIFK88%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KuuLa II
0.50
ÅIFK
3.17

ÅIFK creates 534% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

creates per match

KuuLa II
0.00
ÅIFK
4.00

allows per match

KuuLa II
2.33
ÅIFK
1.00

finishing

KuuLa II+0.00on par
ÅIFK+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KuuLa II ↓

ÅIFK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–213%
0–314%
0–411%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–37%
1–46%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–22%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (14%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

KuuLa II or draw
12%
KuuLa II or ÅIFK
91%
Draw or ÅIFK
97%

Winning margin

KuuLa II wins by 2+
1%
ÅIFK wins by 2+
71%

Team goals

KuuLa II 1+ goals
39%
KuuLa II 2+ goals
9%
KuuLa II 3+ goals
1%
ÅIFK 1+ goals
96%
ÅIFK 2+ goals
82%
ÅIFK 3+ goals
60%

Draw no bet

KuuLa II (draw refunded)
4%
ÅIFK (draw refunded)
96%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KuuLa II at home — creates 0.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

ÅIFK away — creates 4.00, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KuuLa II attack 0.00 + ÅIFK defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.50

ÅIFK attack 4.00 + KuuLa II defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 3.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 88%?"

KuuLa II scores more
3%
level
9%
ÅIFK scores more
88%

ÅIFK at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "ÅIFK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: KuuLa II 0–3 ÅIFK

ÅIFK beat KuuLa II 3-0 in Suomen Cup on March 4, 2023.

The match was played at Kupittaa 5 KHT Keinonurmi in Åbo.