Kutno 1–4 Wasilków: Result & Stats

Kutno

FT

1 – 4

Wasilków

11/14/2020

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 16Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Kutno60%

×Draw21%

Wasilków19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KutnoExpected goals in this matchWasilków

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.10

Kutno

2.12

Wasilków

1.10

Kutno creates 93% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 35 away

1.53

creates per match

0.80

1.41

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

Kutno

1.53

Wasilków

0.80

allows per match

Kutno

1.41

Wasilków

2.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kutno+0.00on par

Wasilków+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kutno ↓

Wasilków →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Kutno or draw

81%

Kutno or Wasilków

79%

Draw or Wasilków

40%

Winning margin

Kutno wins by 2+

37%

Wasilków wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Kutno 1+ goals

88%

Kutno 2+ goals

62%

Kutno 3+ goals

35%

Wasilków 1+ goals

67%

Wasilków 2+ goals

30%

Wasilków 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Kutno (draw refunded)

76%

Wasilków (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kutno at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

Wasilków away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.71 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kutno attack 1.53 + Wasilków defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.12

Wasilków attack 0.80 + Kutno defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Kutno scores more

60%

level

21%

Wasilków scores more

19%

Kutno at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Kutno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff