Kutno 0–0 Polonia Warszawa: Result & Stats

Kutno

FT

0 – 0

Polonia Warszawa

9/11/2021

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 8Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Kutno32%

×Draw25%

Polonia Warszawa43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KutnoExpected goals in this matchPolonia Warszawa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.52

Kutno

1.29

Polonia Warszawa

1.52

Polonia Warszawa creates 18% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 36 away

1.53

creates per match

1.64

1.41

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Kutno

1.53

Polonia Warszawa

1.64

allows per match

Kutno

1.41

Polonia Warszawa

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kutno+0.00on par

Polonia Warszawa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kutno ↓

Polonia Warszawa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Kutno or draw

57%

Kutno or Polonia Warszawa

75%

Draw or Polonia Warszawa

68%

Winning margin

Kutno wins by 2+

14%

Polonia Warszawa wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Kutno 1+ goals

72%

Kutno 2+ goals

37%

Kutno 3+ goals

14%

Polonia Warszawa 1+ goals

78%

Polonia Warszawa 2+ goals

45%

Polonia Warszawa 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Kutno (draw refunded)

43%

Polonia Warszawa (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kutno at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

Polonia Warszawa away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.06 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kutno attack 1.53 + Polonia Warszawa defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.29

Polonia Warszawa attack 1.64 + Kutno defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kutno scores more

32%

level

25%

Polonia Warszawa scores more

43%

Polonia Warszawa at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Polonia Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff