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Kutno vs Olimpia Zambrów — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Kutno
Kutno
FT
4 – 2
Olimpia Zambrów
Olimpia Zambrów
8/15/2020III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Kutno44%
×Draw25%
Olimpia Zambrów31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kutno
1.56
Olimpia Zambrów
1.27

Kutno creates 23% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 49 away

creates per match

Kutno
1.53
Olimpia Zambrów
1.14

allows per match

Kutno
1.41
Olimpia Zambrów
1.59

finishing

Kutno+0.00on par
Olimpia Zambrów+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kutno ↓

Olimpia Zambrów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Kutno or draw
69%
Kutno or Olimpia Zambrów
75%
Draw or Olimpia Zambrów
56%

Winning margin

Kutno wins by 2+
22%
Olimpia Zambrów wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Kutno 1+ goals
79%
Kutno 2+ goals
46%
Kutno 3+ goals
21%
Olimpia Zambrów 1+ goals
72%
Olimpia Zambrów 2+ goals
36%
Olimpia Zambrów 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Kutno (draw refunded)
59%
Olimpia Zambrów (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kutno at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

Olimpia Zambrów away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.59 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kutno attack 1.53 + Olimpia Zambrów defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.56

Olimpia Zambrów attack 1.14 + Kutno defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kutno scores more
44%
level
25%
Olimpia Zambrów scores more
31%

Kutno at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kutno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kutno vs Olimpia Zambrów

Kutno beat Olimpia Zambrów 4-2 in III Liga - Group 1 on August 15, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana in Kutno.