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Kutno vs Legia Warszawa II — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Kutno
Kutno
FT
3 – 3
Legia Warszawa II
Legia Warszawa II
11/6/2021III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Kutno34%
×Draw24%
Legia Warszawa II41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kutno
1.43
Legia Warszawa II
1.59

Legia Warszawa II creates 11% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 104 away

creates per match

Kutno
1.53
Legia Warszawa II
1.77

allows per match

Kutno
1.41
Legia Warszawa II
1.32

finishing

Kutno+0.00on par
Legia Warszawa II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kutno ↓

Legia Warszawa II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Kutno or draw
59%
Kutno or Legia Warszawa II
76%
Draw or Legia Warszawa II
66%

Winning margin

Kutno wins by 2+
16%
Legia Warszawa II wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Kutno 1+ goals
76%
Kutno 2+ goals
42%
Kutno 3+ goals
17%
Legia Warszawa II 1+ goals
80%
Legia Warszawa II 2+ goals
47%
Legia Warszawa II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Kutno (draw refunded)
45%
Legia Warszawa II (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kutno at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

Legia Warszawa II away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.32 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kutno attack 1.53 + Legia Warszawa II defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.43

Legia Warszawa II attack 1.77 + Kutno defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kutno scores more
34%
level
24%
Legia Warszawa II scores more
41%

Legia Warszawa II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Legia Warszawa II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kutno vs Legia Warszawa II

Kutno and Legia Warszawa II drew 3-3 in III Liga - Group 1 on November 6, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana in Kutno.