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Kütahyaspor vs Darıca Gençlerbirliği — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Kütahyaspor
Kütahyaspor
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Darıca Gençlerbirliği
Darıca Gençlerbirliği
9/30/2021Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundKütahya Dumlupınar Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kütahyaspor47%
×Draw24%
Darıca Gençlerbirliği29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kütahyaspor
1.65
Darıca Gençlerbirliği
1.25

Kütahyaspor creates 32% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

Kütahyaspor
1.67
Darıca Gençlerbirliği
1.50

allows per match

Kütahyaspor
1.00
Darıca Gençlerbirliği
1.63

finishing

Kütahyaspor+0.00on par
Darıca Gençlerbirliği+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kütahyaspor ↓

Darıca Gençlerbirliği →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Kütahyaspor or draw
71%
Kütahyaspor or Darıca Gençlerbirliği
76%
Draw or Darıca Gençlerbirliği
53%

Winning margin

Kütahyaspor wins by 2+
24%
Darıca Gençlerbirliği wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kütahyaspor 1+ goals
81%
Kütahyaspor 2+ goals
49%
Kütahyaspor 3+ goals
23%
Darıca Gençlerbirliği 1+ goals
71%
Darıca Gençlerbirliği 2+ goals
36%
Darıca Gençlerbirliği 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Kütahyaspor (draw refunded)
62%
Darıca Gençlerbirliği (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kütahyaspor at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Darıca Gençlerbirliği away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kütahyaspor attack 1.67 + Darıca Gençlerbirliği defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.65

Darıca Gençlerbirliği attack 1.50 + Kütahyaspor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kütahyaspor scores more
47%
level
24%
Darıca Gençlerbirliği scores more
29%

Kütahyaspor at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kütahyaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Kütahyaspor 0–0 Darıca Gençlerbirliği

Kütahyaspor and Darıca Gençlerbirliği drew 0-0 in Türkiye Kupası on September 30, 2021.

The match was played at Kütahya Dumlupınar Stadyumu in Kütahya.