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Kütahyaspor vs Bursa Yıldırımspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Kütahyaspor
Kütahyaspor
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bursa Yıldırımspor
Bursa Yıldırımspor
10/14/2020Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 1st RoundKütahya Dumlupınar Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kütahyaspor54%
×Draw29%
Bursa Yıldırımspor18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kütahyaspor
1.33
Bursa Yıldırımspor
0.63

Kütahyaspor creates 111% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Kütahyaspor
1.67
Bursa Yıldırımspor
0.25

allows per match

Kütahyaspor
1.00
Bursa Yıldırımspor
1.00

finishing

Kütahyaspor+0.00on par
Bursa Yıldırımspor+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kütahyaspor ↓

Bursa Yıldırımspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Kütahyaspor or draw
82%
Kütahyaspor or Bursa Yıldırımspor
71%
Draw or Bursa Yıldırımspor
46%

Winning margin

Kütahyaspor wins by 2+
26%
Bursa Yıldırımspor wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Kütahyaspor 1+ goals
74%
Kütahyaspor 2+ goals
38%
Kütahyaspor 3+ goals
15%
Bursa Yıldırımspor 1+ goals
47%
Bursa Yıldırımspor 2+ goals
13%
Bursa Yıldırımspor 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Kütahyaspor (draw refunded)
75%
Bursa Yıldırımspor (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kütahyaspor at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Bursa Yıldırımspor away — creates 0.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kütahyaspor attack 1.67 + Bursa Yıldırımspor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Bursa Yıldırımspor attack 0.25 + Kütahyaspor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Kütahyaspor scores more
54%
level
29%
Bursa Yıldırımspor scores more
18%

Kütahyaspor at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Kütahyaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Kütahyaspor 1–0 Bursa Yıldırımspor

Kütahyaspor beat Bursa Yıldırımspor 1-0 in Türkiye Kupası on October 14, 2020.

The match was played at Kütahya Dumlupınar Stadyumu in Kütahya.