Kustosija 2–1 Zrinski Jurjevac: Result & Stats

Kustosija

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Zrinski Jurjevac

6/10/2023

First NL · Relegation RoundIgralište NK Kustošija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Kustosija45%

×Draw27%

Zrinski Jurjevac27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KustosijaExpected goals in this matchZrinski Jurjevac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.00

Kustosija

1.37

Zrinski Jurjevac

1.00

Kustosija creates 37% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 34 away

1.21

creates per match

0.91

1.08

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Kustosija

1.21

Zrinski Jurjevac

0.91

allows per match

Kustosija

1.08

Zrinski Jurjevac

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kustosija+0.00on par

Zrinski Jurjevac+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kustosija ↓

Zrinski Jurjevac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Kustosija or draw

73%

Kustosija or Zrinski Jurjevac

73%

Draw or Zrinski Jurjevac

55%

Winning margin

Kustosija wins by 2+

21%

Zrinski Jurjevac wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Kustosija 1+ goals

75%

Kustosija 2+ goals

40%

Kustosija 3+ goals

16%

Zrinski Jurjevac 1+ goals

63%

Zrinski Jurjevac 2+ goals

26%

Zrinski Jurjevac 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Kustosija (draw refunded)

62%

Zrinski Jurjevac (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kustosija at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.08 · 73 matches

Zrinski Jurjevac away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.53 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kustosija attack 1.21 + Zrinski Jurjevac defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.37

Zrinski Jurjevac attack 0.91 + Kustosija defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kustosija scores more

45%

level

27%

Zrinski Jurjevac scores more

27%

Kustosija at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kustosija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff