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Kustosija vs Križevci — Second NL 2022

Kustosija
Kustosija
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Križevci
Križevci
3/21/2025Second NLSecond NL · Round 20Igralište NK Kustošija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Kustosija53%
×Draw25%
Križevci23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kustosija
1.64
Križevci
0.98

Kustosija creates 67% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 46 away

creates per match

Kustosija
1.93
Križevci
1.26

allows per match

Kustosija
0.71
Križevci
1.35

finishing

Kustosija+0.00on par
Križevci+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kustosija ↓

Križevci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Kustosija or draw
77%
Kustosija or Križevci
75%
Draw or Križevci
47%

Winning margin

Kustosija wins by 2+
28%
Križevci wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kustosija 1+ goals
81%
Kustosija 2+ goals
49%
Kustosija 3+ goals
23%
Križevci 1+ goals
62%
Križevci 2+ goals
26%
Križevci 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Kustosija (draw refunded)
70%
Križevci (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kustosija at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.71 · 45 matches

Križevci away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.35 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kustosija attack 1.93 + Križevci defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.64

Križevci attack 1.26 + Kustosija defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Kustosija scores more
53%
level
25%
Križevci scores more
23%

Kustosija at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Kustosija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second NL: Kustosija 1–3 Križevci

Križevci beat Kustosija 3-1 in Second NL on March 21, 2025.

The match was played at Igralište NK Kustošija in Zagreb.