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Kustosija vs Inter Zapresic — First NL 2018

Kustosija
Kustosija
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Inter Zapresic
Inter Zapresic
5/7/2022First NLFirst NL · Round 27Igralište NK Kustošija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Kustosija39%
×Draw28%
Inter Zapresic33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kustosija
1.27
Inter Zapresic
1.14

Kustosija creates 11% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 32 away

creates per match

Kustosija
1.21
Inter Zapresic
1.19

allows per match

Kustosija
1.08
Inter Zapresic
1.34

finishing

Kustosija+0.00on par
Inter Zapresic+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kustosija ↓

Inter Zapresic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kustosija or draw
67%
Kustosija or Inter Zapresic
72%
Draw or Inter Zapresic
61%

Winning margin

Kustosija wins by 2+
17%
Inter Zapresic wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Kustosija 1+ goals
72%
Kustosija 2+ goals
36%
Kustosija 3+ goals
14%
Inter Zapresic 1+ goals
68%
Inter Zapresic 2+ goals
32%
Inter Zapresic 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kustosija (draw refunded)
54%
Inter Zapresic (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kustosija at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.08 · 73 matches

Inter Zapresic away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kustosija attack 1.21 + Inter Zapresic defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.27

Inter Zapresic attack 1.19 + Kustosija defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kustosija scores more
39%
level
28%
Inter Zapresic scores more
33%

Kustosija at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kustosija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kustosija vs Inter Zapresic

Kustosija and Inter Zapresic drew 1-1 in First NL on May 7, 2022.

The match was played at Igralište NK Kustošija in Zagreb.