Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kustosija vs Dinamo Zagreb II — First NL 2018

Kustosija
Kustosija
CANC
00:00
Dinamo Zagreb II
Dinamo Zagreb II
4/22/2020First NLFirst NL · Round 25Igralište NK Kustošija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Kustosija46%
×Draw27%
Dinamo Zagreb II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kustosija
1.41
Dinamo Zagreb II
1.01

Kustosija creates 40% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 54 away

creates per match

Kustosija
1.21
Dinamo Zagreb II
0.93

allows per match

Kustosija
1.08
Dinamo Zagreb II
1.61

finishing

Kustosija+0.00on par
Dinamo Zagreb II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kustosija ↓

Dinamo Zagreb II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kustosija or draw
73%
Kustosija or Dinamo Zagreb II
73%
Draw or Dinamo Zagreb II
54%

Winning margin

Kustosija wins by 2+
22%
Dinamo Zagreb II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Kustosija 1+ goals
76%
Kustosija 2+ goals
41%
Kustosija 3+ goals
17%
Dinamo Zagreb II 1+ goals
64%
Dinamo Zagreb II 2+ goals
27%
Dinamo Zagreb II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Kustosija (draw refunded)
63%
Dinamo Zagreb II (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kustosija at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.08 · 73 matches

Dinamo Zagreb II away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.61 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kustosija attack 1.21 + Dinamo Zagreb II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.41

Dinamo Zagreb II attack 0.93 + Kustosija defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kustosija scores more
46%
level
27%
Dinamo Zagreb II scores more
27%

Kustosija at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kustosija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Kustosija host Dinamo Zagreb II

April 22, 2020: Kustosija take on Dinamo Zagreb II in First NL. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Kustosija host Dinamo Zagreb II at Igralište NK Kustošija.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.