Kustosija 1–0 Belišće: Result & Stats | Second NL

Kustosija

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Belišće

F. Petkovic 90'

11/18/2023

Second NL · Round 14Igralište NK Kustošija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Kustosija66%

×Draw19%

Belišće14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KustosijaExpected goals in this matchBelišće

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

0.89

Kustosija

2.17

Belišće

0.89

Kustosija creates 144% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

1.93

creates per match

1.07

0.71

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Kustosija

1.93

Belišće

1.07

allows per match

Kustosija

0.71

Belišće

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kustosija+0.00on par

Belišće+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kustosija ↓

Belišće →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Kustosija or draw

86%

Kustosija or Belišće

81%

Draw or Belišće

34%

Winning margin

Kustosija wins by 2+

43%

Belišće wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Kustosija 1+ goals

89%

Kustosija 2+ goals

64%

Kustosija 3+ goals

36%

Belišće 1+ goals

59%

Belišće 2+ goals

22%

Belišće 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Kustosija (draw refunded)

82%

Belišće (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kustosija at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.71 · 45 matches

Belišće away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.40 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kustosija attack 1.93 + Belišće defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.17

Belišće attack 1.07 + Kustosija defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Kustosija scores more

66%

level

19%

Belišće scores more

14%

Kustosija at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Kustosija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90'

F. Petkovic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff