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Kuşadasıspor vs Kartal Bulvarspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Kuşadasıspor
Kuşadasıspor
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Kartal Bulvarspor
Kartal Bulvarspor
9/28/2022Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundKuşadası Belediyesi Özer Türk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kuşadasıspor53%
×Draw22%
Kartal Bulvarspor25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kuşadasıspor
1.92
Kartal Bulvarspor
1.25

Kuşadasıspor creates 54% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Kuşadasıspor
1.33
Kartal Bulvarspor
1.50

allows per match

Kuşadasıspor
1.00
Kartal Bulvarspor
2.50

finishing

Kuşadasıspor+0.00on par
Kartal Bulvarspor+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuşadasıspor ↓

Kartal Bulvarspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Kuşadasıspor or draw
75%
Kuşadasıspor or Kartal Bulvarspor
78%
Draw or Kartal Bulvarspor
47%

Winning margin

Kuşadasıspor wins by 2+
30%
Kartal Bulvarspor wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Kuşadasıspor 1+ goals
85%
Kuşadasıspor 2+ goals
57%
Kuşadasıspor 3+ goals
30%
Kartal Bulvarspor 1+ goals
71%
Kartal Bulvarspor 2+ goals
36%
Kartal Bulvarspor 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Kuşadasıspor (draw refunded)
68%
Kartal Bulvarspor (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuşadasıspor at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Kartal Bulvarspor away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuşadasıspor attack 1.33 + Kartal Bulvarspor defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.92

Kartal Bulvarspor attack 1.50 + Kuşadasıspor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Kuşadasıspor scores more
53%
level
22%
Kartal Bulvarspor scores more
25%

Kuşadasıspor at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Kuşadasıspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Kuşadasıspor 0–1 Kartal Bulvarspor

Kartal Bulvarspor beat Kuşadasıspor 1-0 in Türkiye Kupası on September 28, 2022.

The match was played at Kuşadası Belediyesi Özer Türk Stadyumu in Kusadasi.