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Kuřim vs Slavoj Polná — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Kuřim
Kuřim
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Slavoj Polná
Slavoj Polná
10/27/20244. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 13Městský stadion Kuřim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Kuřim77%
×Draw14%
Slavoj Polná9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kuřim
2.85
Slavoj Polná
0.90

Kuřim creates 217% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 54 away

creates per match

Kuřim
2.50
Slavoj Polná
0.96

allows per match

Kuřim
0.83
Slavoj Polná
3.20

finishing

Kuřim+0.00on par
Slavoj Polná+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuřim ↓

Slavoj Polná →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Kuřim or draw
91%
Kuřim or Slavoj Polná
86%
Draw or Slavoj Polná
23%

Winning margin

Kuřim wins by 2+
56%
Slavoj Polná wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Kuřim 1+ goals
94%
Kuřim 2+ goals
77%
Kuřim 3+ goals
53%
Slavoj Polná 1+ goals
59%
Slavoj Polná 2+ goals
23%
Slavoj Polná 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kuřim (draw refunded)
89%
Slavoj Polná (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuřim at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.83 · 30 matches

Slavoj Polná away — creates 0.96, concedes 3.20 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuřim attack 2.50 + Slavoj Polná defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.85

Slavoj Polná attack 0.96 + Kuřim defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Kuřim scores more
77%
level
14%
Slavoj Polná scores more
9%

Kuřim at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Kuřim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kuřim vs Slavoj Polná

Kuřim beat Slavoj Polná 3-1 in 4. liga - Divizie D on October 27, 2024.

The match was played at Městský stadion Kuřim in Kuřim.