Kuřim 2–0 Humpolec: Result & Stats

Kuřim

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Humpolec

3/29/2025

4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 19Městský stadion Kuřim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Kuřim66%

×Draw19%

Humpolec15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KuřimExpected goals in this matchHumpolec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.26

0.97

Kuřim

2.26

Humpolec

0.97

Kuřim creates 133% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 80 away

2.50

creates per match

1.10

0.83

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

Kuřim

2.50

Humpolec

1.10

allows per match

Kuřim

0.83

Humpolec

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kuřim+0.00on par

Humpolec+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuřim ↓

Humpolec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Kuřim or draw

85%

Kuřim or Humpolec

81%

Draw or Humpolec

34%

Winning margin

Kuřim wins by 2+

43%

Humpolec wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Kuřim 1+ goals

89%

Kuřim 2+ goals

66%

Kuřim 3+ goals

39%

Humpolec 1+ goals

62%

Humpolec 2+ goals

25%

Humpolec 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Kuřim (draw refunded)

82%

Humpolec (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuřim at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.83 · 30 matches

Humpolec away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.02 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuřim attack 2.50 + Humpolec defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 2.26

Humpolec attack 1.10 + Kuřim defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Kuřim scores more

66%

level

19%

Humpolec scores more

15%

Kuřim at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Kuřim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff