Kuressaare 2–3 Tammeka: Result & Stats

Kuressaare

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

Tammeka

6/17/2025

Meistriliiga · Round 17Kuressaare Linnastaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Kuressaare41%

×Draw24%

Tammeka34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KuressaareExpected goals in this matchTammeka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.42

Kuressaare

1.58

Tammeka

1.42

Kuressaare creates 11% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 127 away

1.17

creates per match

1.20

1.63

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Kuressaare

1.17

Tammeka

1.20

allows per match

Kuressaare

1.63

Tammeka

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kuressaare+0.00on par

Tammeka+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuressaare ↓

Tammeka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Kuressaare or draw

66%

Kuressaare or Tammeka

76%

Draw or Tammeka

59%

Winning margin

Kuressaare wins by 2+

21%

Tammeka wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Kuressaare 1+ goals

79%

Kuressaare 2+ goals

47%

Kuressaare 3+ goals

21%

Tammeka 1+ goals

76%

Tammeka 2+ goals

41%

Tammeka 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Kuressaare (draw refunded)

55%

Tammeka (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuressaare at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.63 · 131 matches

Tammeka away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.00 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuressaare attack 1.17 + Tammeka defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.58

Tammeka attack 1.20 + Kuressaare defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kuressaare scores more

41%

level

24%

Tammeka scores more

34%

Kuressaare at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kuressaare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff