Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kuressaare vs Nõmme United — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Kuressaare
Kuressaare
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Nõmme United
Nõmme United
A. Kivi 43' (pen)
A. Jermatsenko 28'
E. Ounapuu 23'
1/19/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Kuressaare kunstmurustaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Kuressaare44%
×Draw19%
Nõmme United37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kuressaare
2.50
Nõmme United
2.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Kuressaare
2.00
Nõmme United
2.83

allows per match

Kuressaare
1.80
Nõmme United
3.00

finishing

Kuressaare+0.00on par
Nõmme United+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuressaare ↓

Nõmme United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
70%30%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

Kuressaare or draw
63%
Kuressaare or Nõmme United
81%
Draw or Nõmme United
56%

Winning margin

Kuressaare wins by 2+
26%
Nõmme United wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Kuressaare 1+ goals
92%
Kuressaare 2+ goals
71%
Kuressaare 3+ goals
45%
Nõmme United 1+ goals
90%
Nõmme United 2+ goals
67%
Nõmme United 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Kuressaare (draw refunded)
54%
Nõmme United (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuressaare at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Nõmme United away — creates 2.83, concedes 3.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuressaare attack 2.00 + Nõmme United defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Nõmme United attack 2.83 + Kuressaare defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kuressaare scores more
44%
level
19%
Nõmme United scores more
37%

Kuressaare at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kuressaare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
E. Ounapuu
28'
A. Jermatsenko
43'
A. KiviPenalty
Kuressaare
Nõmme
R. Kozhukhovskyi
Manager: R. Kozhukhovskyi
S. Cisakowski
Manager: S. Cisakowski

Match Recap: Kuressaare vs Nõmme United

Kuressaare beat Nõmme United 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 19, 2025.

Goals: E. Ounapuu (23'), A. Jermatsenko (28'), A. Kivi (43' pen).

The match was played at Kuressaare kunstmurustaadion in Kuressaare.