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Kuressaare vs Kalju Nomme — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Kuressaare
Kuressaare
CANC
13:00
Kalju Nomme
Kalju Nomme
2/17/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3EJL Jalgpallihall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Kuressaare27%
×Draw20%
Kalju Nomme53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kuressaare
1.57
Kalju Nomme
2.25

Kalju Nomme creates 43% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Kuressaare
2.00
Kalju Nomme
2.71

allows per match

Kuressaare
1.80
Kalju Nomme
1.14

finishing

Kuressaare+0.00on par
Kalju Nomme+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuressaare ↓

Kalju Nomme →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Kuressaare or draw
47%
Kuressaare or Kalju Nomme
80%
Draw or Kalju Nomme
73%

Winning margin

Kuressaare wins by 2+
12%
Kalju Nomme wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Kuressaare 1+ goals
79%
Kuressaare 2+ goals
46%
Kuressaare 3+ goals
21%
Kalju Nomme 1+ goals
89%
Kalju Nomme 2+ goals
65%
Kalju Nomme 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Kuressaare (draw refunded)
34%
Kalju Nomme (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuressaare at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Kalju Nomme away — creates 2.71, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuressaare attack 2.00 + Kalju Nomme defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.57

Kalju Nomme attack 2.71 + Kuressaare defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Kuressaare scores more
27%
level
20%
Kalju Nomme scores more
53%

Kalju Nomme at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Kalju Nomme will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Kuressaare host Kalju Nomme

February 17, 2024: Kuressaare take on Kalju Nomme in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Kuressaare host Kalju Nomme at EJL Jalgpallihall.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.