Kalju Nomme 2–0 Kuressaare: Result & Stats

Kalju Nomme

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kuressaare

8/31/2025

Meistriliiga · Round 26Hiiu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Kalju Nomme59%

×Draw21%

Kuressaare20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kalju NommeExpected goals in this matchKuressaare

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.06

Kalju Nomme

2.00

Kuressaare

1.06

Kalju Nomme creates 89% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 132 away

1.98

creates per match

1.00

1.11

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

Kalju Nomme

1.98

Kuressaare

1.00

allows per match

Kalju Nomme

1.11

Kuressaare

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kalju Nomme+0.00on par

Kuressaare+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalju Nomme ↓

Kuressaare →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Kalju Nomme or draw

80%

Kalju Nomme or Kuressaare

79%

Draw or Kuressaare

41%

Winning margin

Kalju Nomme wins by 2+

35%

Kuressaare wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Kalju Nomme 1+ goals

86%

Kalju Nomme 2+ goals

59%

Kalju Nomme 3+ goals

32%

Kuressaare 1+ goals

65%

Kuressaare 2+ goals

29%

Kuressaare 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Kalju Nomme (draw refunded)

75%

Kuressaare (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalju Nomme at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.11 · 129 matches

Kuressaare away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.02 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalju Nomme attack 1.98 + Kuressaare defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 2.00

Kuressaare attack 1.00 + Kalju Nomme defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Kalju Nomme scores more

59%

level

21%

Kuressaare scores more

20%

Kalju Nomme at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Kalju Nomme will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff