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Kuressaare II vs Paide II — Esiliiga B 2026

Kuressaare II
Kuressaare II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Paide II
Paide II
4/28/2025Esiliiga BEsiliiga B · Round 8Kuressaare Linnastaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Kuressaare II35%
×Draw22%
Paide II42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kuressaare II
1.68
Paide II
1.85

Paide II creates 10% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 19 away

creates per match

Kuressaare II
1.31
Paide II
1.32

allows per match

Kuressaare II
2.39
Paide II
2.05

finishing

Kuressaare II+0.00on par
Paide II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuressaare II ↓

Paide II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Kuressaare II or draw
58%
Kuressaare II or Paide II
78%
Draw or Paide II
65%

Winning margin

Kuressaare II wins by 2+
18%
Paide II wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Kuressaare II 1+ goals
81%
Kuressaare II 2+ goals
50%
Kuressaare II 3+ goals
24%
Paide II 1+ goals
84%
Paide II 2+ goals
55%
Paide II 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Kuressaare II (draw refunded)
46%
Paide II (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuressaare II at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.39 · 36 matches

Paide II away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.05 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuressaare II attack 1.31 + Paide II defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.68

Paide II attack 1.32 + Kuressaare II defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kuressaare II scores more
35%
level
22%
Paide II scores more
42%

Paide II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Paide II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kuressaare II vs Paide II

Paide II beat Kuressaare II 2-0 in Esiliiga B on April 28, 2025.

The match was played at Kuressaare Linnastaadion in Kuressaare.