Kuressaare II 3–4 Legion: Result & Stats

Kuressaare II

FT

3 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

Legion

4/13/2025

Esiliiga B · Round 6Kuressaare Linnastaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Kuressaare II39%

×Draw21%

Legion40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kuressaare IIExpected goals in this matchLegion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.03

2.06

Kuressaare II

2.03

Legion

2.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 46 away

1.31

creates per match

1.72

2.39

allows per match

2.74

creates per match

Kuressaare II

1.31

Legion

1.72

allows per match

Kuressaare II

2.39

Legion

2.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kuressaare II+0.00on par

Legion+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuressaare II ↓

Legion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Kuressaare II or draw

60%

Kuressaare II or Legion

79%

Draw or Legion

61%

Winning margin

Kuressaare II wins by 2+

21%

Legion wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Kuressaare II 1+ goals

87%

Kuressaare II 2+ goals

60%

Kuressaare II 3+ goals

33%

Legion 1+ goals

87%

Legion 2+ goals

61%

Legion 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Kuressaare II (draw refunded)

49%

Legion (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuressaare II at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.39 · 36 matches

Legion away — creates 1.72, concedes 2.74 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuressaare II attack 1.31 + Legion defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 2.03

Legion attack 1.72 + Kuressaare II defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kuressaare II scores more

39%

level

21%

Legion scores more

40%

Legion at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Legion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff