Kuressaare II 2–0 Läänemaa Haapsalu: Result & Stats

Kuressaare II

FT

2 – 0

Läänemaa Haapsalu

5/26/2024

Esiliiga B · Round 12Kuressaare linnastaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Kuressaare II52%

×Draw19%

Läänemaa Haapsalu29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kuressaare IIExpected goals in this matchLäänemaa Haapsalu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.48

1.83

Kuressaare II

2.48

Läänemaa Haapsalu

1.83

Kuressaare II creates 36% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 37 away

1.31

creates per match

1.27

2.39

allows per match

3.65

creates per match

Kuressaare II

1.31

Läänemaa Haapsalu

1.27

allows per match

Kuressaare II

2.39

Läänemaa Haapsalu

3.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kuressaare II+0.00on par

Läänemaa Haapsalu+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuressaare II ↓

Läänemaa Haapsalu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–33%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Kuressaare II or draw

71%

Kuressaare II or Läänemaa Haapsalu

81%

Draw or Läänemaa Haapsalu

48%

Winning margin

Kuressaare II wins by 2+

32%

Läänemaa Haapsalu wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Kuressaare II 1+ goals

92%

Kuressaare II 2+ goals

70%

Kuressaare II 3+ goals

44%

Läänemaa Haapsalu 1+ goals

84%

Läänemaa Haapsalu 2+ goals

54%

Läänemaa Haapsalu 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Kuressaare II (draw refunded)

64%

Läänemaa Haapsalu (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuressaare II at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.39 · 36 matches

Läänemaa Haapsalu away — creates 1.27, concedes 3.65 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuressaare II attack 1.31 + Läänemaa Haapsalu defence 3.65 → ÷2 → 2.48

Läänemaa Haapsalu attack 1.27 + Kuressaare II defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Kuressaare II scores more

52%

level

19%

Läänemaa Haapsalu scores more

29%

Kuressaare II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Kuressaare II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff