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KuPS W vs TiPS W — Kansallinen Liiga 2020

KuPS W
KuPS W
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
TiPS W
TiPS W
10/9/2021Kansallinen LiigaKansallinen Liiga · Championship Round - 5Väre Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

KuPS W52%
×Draw21%
TiPS W27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KuPS W
2.19
TiPS W
1.55

KuPS W creates 41% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 20 away

creates per match

KuPS W
3.33
TiPS W
2.25

allows per match

KuPS W
0.85
TiPS W
1.05

finishing

KuPS W+0.00on par
TiPS W+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KuPS W ↓

TiPS W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

KuPS W or draw
73%
KuPS W or TiPS W
79%
Draw or TiPS W
48%

Winning margin

KuPS W wins by 2+
31%
TiPS W wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

KuPS W 1+ goals
89%
KuPS W 2+ goals
64%
KuPS W 3+ goals
37%
TiPS W 1+ goals
79%
TiPS W 2+ goals
46%
TiPS W 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

KuPS W (draw refunded)
66%
TiPS W (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KuPS W at home — creates 3.33, concedes 0.85 · 75 matches

TiPS W away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.05 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KuPS W attack 3.33 + TiPS W defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 2.19

TiPS W attack 2.25 + KuPS W defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

KuPS W scores more
52%
level
21%
TiPS W scores more
27%

KuPS W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "KuPS W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

KuPS W 2 – 3 TiPS W

TiPS W beat KuPS W 3-2 in Kansallinen Liiga on October 9, 2021.

The match was played at Väre Areena in Kuopio.