KuPS W 7–0 Ilves W: Result & Stats

KuPS W

FT

7 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Ilves W

R. Ariyo 83', 52', 32'

A. Kauppila 77', 74'

A. Hartikainen 42'

G. Rochi 7'

8/19/2023

Kansallinen Liiga · Round 17Väre Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

KuPS W65%

×Draw18%

Ilves W17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KuPS WExpected goals in this matchIlves W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.56

1.25

KuPS W

2.56

Ilves W

1.25

KuPS W creates 105% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 64 away

3.33

creates per match

1.66

0.85

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

KuPS W

3.33

Ilves W

1.66

allows per match

KuPS W

0.85

Ilves W

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KuPS W+0.00on par

Ilves W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KuPS W ↓

Ilves W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

KuPS W or draw

83%

KuPS W or Ilves W

82%

Draw or Ilves W

35%

Winning margin

KuPS W wins by 2+

44%

Ilves W wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

KuPS W 1+ goals

92%

KuPS W 2+ goals

72%

KuPS W 3+ goals

46%

Ilves W 1+ goals

71%

Ilves W 2+ goals

36%

Ilves W 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

KuPS W (draw refunded)

79%

Ilves W (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KuPS W at home — creates 3.33, concedes 0.85 · 75 matches

Ilves W away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.80 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KuPS W attack 3.33 + Ilves W defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.56

Ilves W attack 1.66 + KuPS W defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

KuPS W scores more

65%

level

18%

Ilves W scores more

17%

KuPS W at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "KuPS W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

32'

42'

46'

52'

54'

54'

S. Määttä← N. Kettunen

67'

W. Forsblom← G. Rochi

67'

A. Kauppila← A. Kröger

74'

A. Kauppila

76'

E. Mäkipelkola← A. Ljesnjanin

76'

S. Haapala← T. Viinikka

77'

A. Kauppila

78'

N. Hahl← A. Hartikainen

78'

S. Kaikkonen← L. Begolli

83'

R. Ariyo

KuPS

Ilves

32

4

88

27

16

▼

Viinikka

35

Heikkilä

7

▼

Kettunen

9

Tuomala

23

Ojala

28

▼

Bohui

24

▼

Ljesnjani

12

Söderströ

23

Santamäki

17

⚽

▼

Hartikain

21

▼

5

4

6

7

⚽

▼

Rochi

33

⚽3

Ariyo

8

▼

Begolli

10

▼

Kröger

Manager: P. Miettinen

46'▲H. Sharts←▼L. Nora

67'▲W. Forsblom←▼G. Rochi

67'▲A. Kauppila←▼A. Kröger

78'▲N. Hahl←▼A. Hartikainen

78'▲S. Kaikkonen←▼L. Begolli

KuPS W substitutes

20Sharts9Forsblom13Kauppila14Hahl24Kaikkonen11Savolainen31Karjalainen

Manager: A. Ylinen

54'▲A. Rasinen←▼P. Bohui

54'▲S. Määttä←▼N. Kettunen

76'▲E. Mäkipelkola←▼A. Ljesnjanin

76'▲S. Haapala←▼T. Viinikka

Ilves W substitutes

14Rasinen19Määttä8Mäkipelkola17Haapala1Hämäläinen

Match Recap: KuPS W vs Ilves W

KuPS W beat Ilves W 7-0 in Kansallinen Liiga on August 19, 2023.

Goals: G. Rochi (7'), R. Ariyo (32', 52', 83'), A. Hartikainen (42'), A. Kauppila (74', 77').

The match was played at Väre Areena in Kuopio.

KuPS W vs Ilves W — Kansallinen Liiga 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: KuPS W vs Ilves W