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KuPS vs HIFK Helsinki — Veikkausliiga 2018

KuPS
KuPS
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
HIFK Helsinki
HIFK Helsinki
9/26/2021VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 3Väre Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

KuPS54%
×Draw24%
HIFK Helsinki22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KuPS
1.69
HIFK Helsinki
0.99

KuPS creates 71% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 52 away

creates per match

KuPS
1.82
HIFK Helsinki
1.08

allows per match

KuPS
0.89
HIFK Helsinki
1.56

finishing

KuPS+0.00on par
HIFK Helsinki+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KuPS ↓

HIFK Helsinki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

KuPS or draw
78%
KuPS or HIFK Helsinki
76%
Draw or HIFK Helsinki
46%

Winning margin

KuPS wins by 2+
29%
HIFK Helsinki wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

KuPS 1+ goals
82%
KuPS 2+ goals
50%
KuPS 3+ goals
24%
HIFK Helsinki 1+ goals
63%
HIFK Helsinki 2+ goals
26%
HIFK Helsinki 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

KuPS (draw refunded)
71%
HIFK Helsinki (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KuPS at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.89 · 122 matches

HIFK Helsinki away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.56 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KuPS attack 1.82 + HIFK Helsinki defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.69

HIFK Helsinki attack 1.08 + KuPS defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

KuPS scores more
54%
level
24%
HIFK Helsinki scores more
22%

KuPS at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "KuPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KuPS vs HIFK Helsinki

KuPS and HIFK Helsinki drew 0-0 in Veikkausliiga on September 26, 2021.

The match was played at Väre Areena in Kuopio.