Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

KuPS vs FF Jaro — Veikkausliiga 2018

KuPS
KuPS
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FF Jaro
FF Jaro
4/19/2025VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 3Vare Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

KuPS58%
×Draw23%
FF Jaro19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KuPS
1.85
FF Jaro
0.95

KuPS creates 95% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 23 away

creates per match

KuPS
1.82
FF Jaro
1.00

allows per match

KuPS
0.89
FF Jaro
1.87

finishing

KuPS+0.00on par
FF Jaro+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KuPS ↓

FF Jaro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

KuPS or draw
81%
KuPS or FF Jaro
77%
Draw or FF Jaro
42%

Winning margin

KuPS wins by 2+
34%
FF Jaro wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

KuPS 1+ goals
84%
KuPS 2+ goals
55%
KuPS 3+ goals
28%
FF Jaro 1+ goals
61%
FF Jaro 2+ goals
25%
FF Jaro 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

KuPS (draw refunded)
75%
FF Jaro (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KuPS at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.89 · 122 matches

FF Jaro away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KuPS attack 1.82 + FF Jaro defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.85

FF Jaro attack 1.00 + KuPS defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

KuPS scores more
58%
level
23%
FF Jaro scores more
19%

KuPS at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "KuPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Veikkausliiga: KuPS 1–0 FF Jaro

KuPS beat FF Jaro 1-0 in Veikkausliiga on April 19, 2025.

The match was played at Vare Areena in Kuopio.