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KuPS vs FC Noah — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

KuPS
KuPS
FT
5 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
FC Noah
FC Noah
7/15/2021UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 1st Qualifying RoundKuopion Keskuskentän tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

KuPS59%
×Draw21%
FC Noah20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KuPS
2.08
FC Noah
1.14

KuPS creates 82% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

creates per match

KuPS
1.71
FC Noah
0.92

allows per match

KuPS
1.36
FC Noah
2.46

finishing

KuPS+0.00on par
FC Noah+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KuPS ↓

FC Noah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

KuPS or draw
80%
KuPS or FC Noah
79%
Draw or FC Noah
41%

Winning margin

KuPS wins by 2+
36%
FC Noah wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

KuPS 1+ goals
87%
KuPS 2+ goals
61%
KuPS 3+ goals
34%
FC Noah 1+ goals
68%
FC Noah 2+ goals
32%
FC Noah 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

KuPS (draw refunded)
74%
FC Noah (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KuPS at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

FC Noah away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KuPS attack 1.71 + FC Noah defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.08

FC Noah attack 0.92 + KuPS defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

KuPS scores more
59%
level
21%
FC Noah scores more
20%

KuPS at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "KuPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KuPS vs FC Noah

KuPS beat FC Noah 5-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on July 15, 2021.

The match was played at Kuopion Keskuskentän tekonurmi in Kuopio.