KuPS 4–1 EIF: Result & Stats | Veikkausliiga

KuPS

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

EIF

T. Hämäläinen 70'

J. Luyeye-Lutumba 58'

P. Pennanen 45' (pen)

J. Muzinga 22'

S. Lindholm 30'

5/26/2024

Veikkausliiga · Round 8Väre Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

KuPS65%

×Draw20%

EIF15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KuPSExpected goals in this matchEIF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

0.88

KuPS

2.06

EIF

0.88

KuPS creates 134% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 14 away

1.82

creates per match

0.86

0.89

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

KuPS

1.82

EIF

0.86

allows per match

KuPS

0.89

EIF

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KuPS+0.00on par

EIF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KuPS ↓

EIF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

KuPS or draw

85%

KuPS or EIF

80%

Draw or EIF

35%

Winning margin

KuPS wins by 2+

40%

EIF wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

KuPS 1+ goals

87%

KuPS 2+ goals

61%

KuPS 3+ goals

34%

EIF 1+ goals

59%

EIF 2+ goals

22%

EIF 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

KuPS (draw refunded)

81%

EIF (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KuPS at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.89 · 122 matches

EIF away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KuPS attack 1.82 + EIF defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.06

EIF attack 0.86 + KuPS defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

KuPS scores more

65%

level

20%

EIF scores more

15%

KuPS at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "KuPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

E. Pallas

22'

J. Muzinga

24'

E. Puro

30'

S. Lindholm↳ J. Lehtonen

45'

P. PennanenPenalty

58'

N. Mohammed← E. Puro

58'

N. Lundström← E. Pallas

58'

J. Luyeye-Lutumba↳ P. Pennanen

63'

S. Ojala← A. Kanté

67'

A. Heinonen← M. Siltanen

67'

J. Voutilainen← A. Vidjeskog

70'

T. Hämäläinen↳ J. Voutilainen

73'

N. Mohammed

76'

O. Ruoppi← P. Pennanen

76'

M. Muritala← J. Muzinga

76'

A. Björklund← S. Efimov

82'

V. Vehkonen

84'

Kristopher Da Graca← C. Antwi

KuPS

EIF

1

35

5

3

8

14

⚽

Lindholm

11

▼

Puro

2

A

Lehtonen

24

▼

Kanté

30

▼

Pallas

31

▼

Efimov

12

Hakala

33

⚽

Hämäläine

25

▼

Antwi

15

Cissé

16

Miettinen

8

⚽A

▼

Pennanen

13

Oksanen

26

▼

Vidjeskog

21

⚽

Luyeye-Lu

28

▼

Siltanen

9

⚽

▼

Muzinga

Manager: J. Honkavaara

67'▲A. Heinonen←▼M. Siltanen

67'▲J. Voutilainen←▼A. Vidjeskog

76'▲O. Ruoppi←▼P. Pennanen

76'▲M. Muritala←▼J. Muzinga

84'▲Kristopher Da Graca←▼C. Antwi

KuPS substitutes

17Heinonen7Voutilainen34Ruoppi14Muritala4Graca1Kreidl18Saarinen

Manager: Gabriel Xatart

58'▲N. Mohammed←▼E. Puro

58'▲N. Lundström←▼E. Pallas

63'▲S. Ojala←▼A. Kanté

76'▲A. Björklund←▼S. Efimov

EIF substitutes

22Mohammed20Lundström9Ojala15Björklund90Rintamäki34Malundama29Mohamed

Veikkausliiga: KuPS 4–1 EIF

KuPS beat EIF 4-1 in Veikkausliiga on May 26, 2024.

Goals: J. Muzinga (22'), S. Lindholm (30'), P. Pennanen (45' pen), J. Luyeye-Lutumba (58'), T. Hämäläinen (70').

The match was played at Väre Areena in Kuopio.

KuPS vs EIF — Veikkausliiga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Veikkausliiga: KuPS 4–1 EIF